There isn’t really any more crop in storage than is average for this time of year, says Steve Kell, grain merchandiser with Kell Grain; however, current prices and price outlooks has many farmers less than enthused about pricing ’24 crop.
Kell notes that prices are 25 per cent lower than last year at this time, driven by a large North American crop of beans and corn coming. Those big supplies are sure to weigh on the market right now, but Kell says there’s a coming La Niña weather pattern for South America, which could affect global soybean supplies.
Farmers have been less likely to price ’24 production, which makes sense, though there was decent booking done earlier, he says. Kell suggests the soybean market is going to act a bit like a rodeo bull with small, fast moves that don’t lead to significant changes (the bull rider rarely wins!).
He advises farmers to be patient and focus on realistic price expectations. “We’re not headed back to $17 or $18 bushel soybeans,” he says. “But, you know, if we make our way back into the thirteens, fourteens, reasonable expectations of where we could get to, I think those opportunities will open up for us. I think the harvest low came before harvest started.”
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