Opinion
Regardless of political stripe, governing takes energy and ideas.
There are many signs Canada’s current government, led by Justin Trudeau, is lacking both. Signs that the government’s battery is weak and running low.
Look no further than the news this week from Liberal campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst — arguably the third most important political player on Team Trudeau, behind the Prime Minister and his chief of staff, Katie Telford — that he is quitting with an election on the horizon because he doesn’t have enough “energy and devotion” for the job.
Trudeau’s Quebec lieutenant and Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez has also spent the last few weeks refusing to deny that he is planning his escape to provincial politics, possibly only staying on to help shore up support in the Sept. 16 federal by-election in Montreal where Team Trudeau is at risk of losing another “safe” Liberal seat to the NDP or Bloc.
While the Liberals have tanked in the polls, there has been no major effort to replace Trudeau. Instead, many Liberals who have stood behind him in the House of Commons and at hundreds of public appearances are checking out or pretending there isn’t a problem. Some are abandoning the ship. None are showing enough signs of life, at least in public, to rock the boat and replace the ailing captain.
But the rest of the world is not standing still waiting for Canada’s political leadership to get its vigour back.
Whether we’re looking at issues around cost-of-living, labour, productivity, national security, or trade, there are major files that require a federal cabinet and decision-makers that are fully invested and willing to make bold decisions, not distracted and nervously glancing for the nearest exit.
One example is the upcoming review of the North American trade deal in 2026. Regardless of whether it’s a Harris or Trump administration, it’s going to be a tough re-negotiation with the customer that buys more than 77 per cent of the stuff Canada sells to the world. As the smallest player in the deal, Canada needs to have a coordinated plan in place for providing solutions to the laundry list of problems the U.S. will predictably bring forward.
While preparation is one of the few aspects of the upcoming trade talks that Canada can control, the government has not yet appointed a lead negotiator to organize the effort. Ambassador Kirsten Hillman has been working hard on the ground, including at the recent Republican and Democrat conventions, but it will have to be a team effort, involving federal and provincial governments, as well as many industry stakeholders. The people, systems, and communication channels needed to mobilize and coordinate Team Canada’s effort this time around should already be in place, but most are not.
Contrast that to the last North American trade talks in 2017, when the Trudeau government, with Chrystia Freeland leading the trade file, were still largely popular, fresh, and brimming with energy and ideas.
The NDP’s decision to rip up its deal with the Liberals raises the odds of an earlier federal election and change in government, but with no one inside the Liberal party knocking on the door, Justin Trudeau can still determine when he packs up his office.
From here, it looks like he has two options: lose an election (whether it happens this fall or is delayed until next year sometime) and then leave, or leave before an all-but-sure loss, which would also speed up the timeline for a new leader to bring the party and Liberal brand back to life.
Either way, he’s delaying his inevitable departure, and the longer the Trudeau government drives on low battery, the further behind Canada falls.
