While at least six of Justin Trudeau’s cabinet ministers have decided over the last few months that they will exit federal politics, Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay is keeping the door open on running again in the next federal election.
At the same time, having served as MP for his Prince Edward Island riding for 36 years and just celebrated his 78th birthday, MacAulay has not given a definitive “yes” when asked about whether he intends to run again.
News broke last week that another four of MacAulay’s colleagues in cabinet have told the prime minister they will not be seeking re-election. The list included former ag minister Marie-Claude Bibeau, who’s looking to run for mayor of Sherbrooke, Quebec, along with Dan Vandal, Filomena Tassi, and Carla Qualtrough.
They follow on the heels of Pablo Rodriguez and Seamus O’Regan in finding the exit ahead of the upcoming federal election — one in which polls for over a year have projected a large Liberal defeat by the Conservatives.
When asked for a subsequent update on MacAulay’s plan, his office quickly replied with the following brief note:
“Minister MacAulay is always preparing for the next election.”
That doesn’t inherently mean he’s preparing to be a candidate, but it also doesn’t rule it out.
At the riding nomination level, we’re told MacAulay has not yet indicated to his Cardigan Liberal riding association what his intention is.
In August, MacAulay partly-joked with a CBC reporter that whether he runs might depend on his health.
“I just hope I’m alive when the next election comes around. That’s it,” he said. “When you get to my stage in life, you don’t want to get too aggressive.”
MacAulay will also have to weigh whether he’s interested in competing in a much tougher race in his riding than in the past, as many incumbent Liberals in Atlantic Canada are facing an uphill battle to fend off Conservative challengers. Individual riding projections need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but 338Canada’s model shows the Conservatives with an 84 per cent chance of winning MacAulay’s riding, as of Oct. 20.
It’s likely not a coincidence the news of all four cabinet ministers was made public on the same Thursday morning in October. The Prime Minister’s Office probably coordinated the information in an effort to clear the deck of negative news, rather than have multiple ministers make similar announcements over a period of weeks, multiplying the sinking ship narrative. Reading between the lines, the fact his name wasn’t on the list could mean MacAulay has not informed the Prime Minister of any plan to not run again.
Anyone who has dedicated as much of their life to public service as MacAulay has deserves a lot of respect, as Tyler McCann of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute noted on this past Friday’s Issues Panel on RealAg Radio.
As the longest-serving Liberal in the House of Commons, he probably isn’t facing the same expectations or pressure as other candidates from the Prime Minister’s Office and his riding association to make a decision whether to run or not.
Time will tell. In the meantime, MacAulay is still preparing for the next election.
Related:
MacAulay back in as minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, Bibeau moves to National Revenue
MacAulay’s return sends a message to farmers and ranchers
