Every now and then expected seasonality offers a surprise for grain growers. For fall of 2024, commodity markets are moving ever so slightly against seasonal trends and are actually edging higher ahead of the coming corn harvest.
Ranulf Glanville, market analyst with Grainfox, says that market behaviour right now offers farmers some reasons to be optimistic, but cautiously so — expecting a huge push to the upside is just not in the cards.
With nearly 80 per cent of corn crop yet to come in, a market correction is still possible and would fall more in line with the corn market lows being made in November versus August.
For those looking to price into some rallies, Glanville says to avoid round numbers as pricing targets. “Everyone sees the same charts,” he says, and if everyone is eyeing up $4.50, setting a target for slightly below that might be a prudent move.
There are market pressures and supports happening in soybeans and canola, too, from China investigating canola shipments from Canada for dumping, and a heavy soybean crop yet to be harvested. But Glanville says some of these factors have been worked in to the market, it seems.
For more on what’s driving corn market dynamics, why South America could still be a wild card, and how China’s new spending could impact fall markets, listen on below or download the podcast for later!
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