As the calendar moves toward 2025, global pork producers, despite improving profitability, continue to face challenges from trade, disease and demand uncertainties.
In its recent report on global pork markets, Rabobank says these questions as well as the potential impacts of political instability and La Niña further complicate a market that is currently experiencing a positive consumption trend.
In the report, Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for RaboResearch, notes that the global sow herd remained steady through Q3 2024, with little sign of expansion despite improved profitability in some regions. “We expect a seasonal production increase as temperatures cool and fresh corn becomes available, though herd health challenges typically rise during this period,” she says.
In this interview with RealAg Radio host Lyndsey Smith, McCracken says changes in Mexican and Japanese administrations, a U.S. election, and regionalized trade trends could create a less supportive trade environment for pork in 2025. And retaliatory actions like China’s anti-dumping case against the EU highlight the need to build domestic demand and diversify markets. Story continues after the interview.
Global trade is also pressured by tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, hurricane disruptions, and temporary worker issues closing ports in the U.S. and Canada. McCracken says these challenges add costs and can strand products, with effects expected to extend into Q4 and beyond.
Biosecurity remains a top priority due to ongoing disease risks. Disease outbreaks in South Korea, Russia, and the EU have led to production losses that have limited herd rebuilding, but China’s moderating disease pressure should support a return to herd growth in 2025. Slight production growth is also expected in Brazil, the U.S., and southern EU countries, notes the RaboResearch report.
On the positive side, global feed inventories are nearing their best level in years, and hog production costs are lower in most regions, but feed cost advantages are not uniform across all production regions.
In 2024, lower corn and soymeal costs have provided margin relief in some regions, while tighter wheat supplies have kept costs high in others. Even a mild La Niña creates regional disparities, cautions McCracken. Concerns about localized production shortfalls due to La Niña are focused on South and Central Asia, southern South America, northern Mexico, and East Asia. Dry conditions in Brazil have already delayed soybean planting and could reduce safrinha (second crop) corn acreage in 2025, the report notes
Overall, pork consumption continues to improve, driven by better economic trends. Lower energy costs are helping to slow inflation, though higher costs for services and food weigh on consumers, RaboResearch says. Stronger seasonal demand and the high cost of competing proteins should support favourable consumption in Q4 2024.
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