Demand for nitrogen fertilizer is relatively stable, given the very clear return on pounds applied. But farmers are looking for ways to scale back input costs, and other macronutrients, such as phosphorus, might be on the chopping block. In addition, large areas of the U.S. have turned wet, further decreasing the amount of fall fieldwork that may get done by the end of the month.
That convergence of tighter margins, weather, and global product flows has Josh Linville of Stone X trying to figure out how much demand destruction for fertilizer products might be baked in now and what spring demand may look like. Spring has its own set of timing challenges, however, and there’s a reason that fall delivery and application of some potash and phosphorus happens.
Then, there are global pressures on exporters, such as the Black Sea Region, and the threat of U.S. tariffs significantly disrupting markets. Linville says that farmers will need to have their heads on a swivel when it comes to fertilizer pricing in the months ahead.
Listen to Linville’s discussion with RealAg’s Shaun Haney at the 2024 National Association of Farm Broadcasters’ convention in Kansas City:
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