Grain markets, with the possible exception of soybeans, appear to have bottomed out and are showing signs they’re entering a period of sideways trade, says the president of grain market consulting firm Intellifarm.
He’s not feeling bullish yet, but after striking a negative sentiment in his regular appearances on RealAg Radio over the last two or three years, Brian Voth says he’s letting his bearish sentiment rest heading into winter.
“Bearish Brian has left the building,” he says, speaking with Shaun Haney in the interview below.
“I think we’re setting ourselves up into a sideways market for the next while,” says Voth. “I think we have found our floor price — the one asterisk is on soybeans — but I am cautiously optimistic that we have actually found our our new long term low, or our new long term floor price.”
For corn, he sees strong technical resistance against dropping below the $3.90/bushel range.
“We did drop a little bit lower than that, but I’m cautiously optimistic $3.90-ish on the bottom end will hold on corn,” he says. “Don’t get me wrong, not being bearish is not the same as being bullish.”
The soybean market faces more geopolitical risk to the downside, with the prospect of a tariff war between the new Trump administration and China, similar to what happened in 2018, says Voth.
“Soybean prices are the ones that are most susceptible to a downside correction, especially when you look at the fact that the balance sheet is more than adequate,” he says.
Listen to Voth discuss the possibility that markets have bottomed out, how farmers are feeling about marketing, as shown in new Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index data, and more in this RealAg Markets chat:
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