Opinion
By John Stackhouse, senior vice-president, office of the CEO, Royal Bank of Canada. Host of Disruptors, an RBC podcast. This opinion column first appeared on LinkedIn and has been edited for clarity.
Elections can be good barometers of a society, and Campaign ‘24 is telling us plenty about America today. I just spent two weeks in different parts of the U.S. — two red states, two blue, and one purple — and came home with these impressions:
1. Get used to the Divided States of America. America has been warring with itself almost from the beginning, especially over its identity. The battle continues, with a division between red and blue states that’s so deep and strong, it’s leading to different Americas. One possible outcome could be a further decentralization and curtailment of federal powers, as states (regardless of political colour) seek to control their own destiny an identity, leaving Washington to worry about the world and stay out of America’s backyards.
2. Gender is the new Mason-Dixon Line. It’s actually not so new, but it’s really powerful, perhaps even more so than the MDL which used to define South from North. Men are flocking to Donald Trump, while women are disproportionately supporting Kamala Harris. Remember, women (especially white women in the Rust Belt) cost the 2016 election for Hillary Clinton by staying home. Will they come out in record numbers this time? It could determine the presidency, but it’s also reshaping American society — dividing households, communities, and workplaces.
3. Gen Z is about to be heard. Get ready for more. It’s the generation that grew up with smart phones, graduated into a pandemic, adopted TikTok as a primary information source and bonded with Chat GPT. Did you really think they’d vote like their parents? Polling suggests the kids are even more divided by gender, and that means education. Gen Z males are much less educated than females, and much more inclined to support Trump. The Joe Rogan Gen may just be enough to win him back the presidency. Longer term, it’s also reshaping American society.
4. It’s inflation, stupid. Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign was defined by the adage, “it’s the economy, stupid.” Donald Trump appears to be breaking through his previous ceiling by similarly focussing on inflation — at least when he’s focussed. It’s the number one issue, especially for working class and non-working voters who have seen their living standards diminished during the Biden years. Oddly, supporters of both parties, but especially Republicans, support tariffs, which can be inflationary.
5. Disinformation, on the rise. There’s so much political nonsense and noise, on every channel, every day, everywhere, that it’s become wallpaper to the public conversation. Just think of some of the keywords of this campaign: cats and gods, Hitler, communist, fascist. And those are the words we’re allowed to publish. Will America ever again have an election about issues and ideas and options? More critically, are Americans now inured to disinformation?
6. Deficit? What deficit? The numbers are so shocking they’re hard to believe. And yet no one, but no one, is talking about the growing fiscal crisis on the campaign. Voters don’t seem to care, either. Tomorrow will pay for today. And yet, consider this: A study by the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found the Trump policy platform would increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion through 2035, while Harris’s added costs would be $3.5 trillion. Neither is good.
7. America, the resilient. There’s lots of nattering about contested results, and perhaps violence. While not dismissing those concerns, I was impressed by the number of sophisticated political veterans I met who have more faith in the U.S. system, including the ability of states to run elections, the strength of the justice system, and the ability of Americans to just get on with it. A new Ipsos survey shows a supermajority of Americans say they will accept the results of November 5, no matter who wins. So get ready for lots of sturm und drang, but this is a country that has proven it can heal itself.
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