In the non-supply managed dairy market in the U.S., fluid milk prices ebb and flow more like grain or cattle prices. There are seasonal peaks and valleys and many of the same adages hold true, such as “the cure for high prices is high prices.”
Mike North of Ever.Ag spoke with Shaun Haney at the Milk Business Conference at Las Vegas, Nevada this week to share his insight into the seasonality of the U.S. dairy market, the role of retail pricing in shifting demand, and whether or not avian influenza has shifted consumer preferences.
North says that food safety and the influenza questions don’t appear to be a driver of lower demand by consumers; instead tighter household budgets and seasonal higher cheese and butter prices have triggered less buying by consumers.
It’s not rare, he says, to see prices test highs in September and October before pulling back this time of year, he says.
Demand is only one side of the equation, of course, and North shares that the increasing trend of crossing beef breeds to dairy has left the dairy industry light on replacements. As feeding costs come back in line, he sees that move towards beef and beef crosses slowing.
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