A cascade of geopolitical events is helping shape current agricultural markets and the deluge of developments also promise to move markets into the New Year.
Leading the surge is the Trump administration’s tariff policies and the potential impact on North American trade. In this report, RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney and Steve Nicholson, Rabobank’s global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, look at the impact of global events — from Trump’s return to the White House, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, upheaval in South Korea and more.
The threat of Trump tariffs continues to impact agricultural markets, Nicholson notes, highlighting China’s robust purchases of U.S. soybeans and corn, driven by potential tariffs.” There’s also Europe’s growing imports of agricultural goods and Mexico’s increasing demand due to drought. It all points to a volatile market, Nicholson says, but there is potential upside for corn and wheat due to potential delays in the Brazilian corn crop.
As the calendar turns to 2025, Nicholson says it would be prudent for farmers to keep a sharp eye on trade policy developments as CUSMA/USMCA trade deal discussions take shape. It’s also important to analyze the trade flows and purchasing patterns of major importers like China, Europe, Mexico, and Vietnam to identify new opportunities; and closely watch the progress of the South American soybean crop and its potential impact on the market outlook for 2025.
Nicholson and Haney also discuss the need for continued investment in North American transportation infrastructure to maintain the region’s competitive advantage when compared to Brazil. Listen to the report below.
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