There’s been no avoiding the talk of tariffs in the weeks leading up to the inauguration of President Trump and his subsequent pledge to implement 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1st.
New data from RealAgristudies confirms and quantifies the level of concern in Canada’s agriculture sector. The results are based on a survey of 660 Canadian farmers between Jan. 23 and Jan. 29.
59 percent of respondents expect the proposed Trump tariffs will negatively impact their business. Only seven percent feel there will be no effect. Another seven percent don’t know if there will be an impact, while 27 percent see a possible impact of the Trump tariffs on their farm business.
Farmers who primarily produce livestock are slightly more likely to expect an impact on their farm business than mixed or primarily crop-focused farmers. Interestingly, there’s not much difference in how farmers see the potential impact when you compare age, farm size, and geography.
Overall, 88 per cent of farmers say they are very or somewhat concerned about the impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy, with only three per cent not very concerned.
When it comes to the likelihood of a trade war that significantly decreases Canadian agricultural exports, 29 per cent of respondents feel that scenario is very likely, while 46 per cent forty six percent say it’s likely. 11 per cent feel a trade war that hurts ag exports is unlikely.
Livestock producers tend to see a trade war as more likely (88%) than mixed (72%) or primarily crop producers (75%). Smaller farmers are also more concerned about a trade war than larger farmers to a slight degree.
From an age standpoint (see chart above), farmers over 65 see a trade war as more “very likely” than their younger peers, while farmers under the age of thirty-five were most likely to say a trade war as “likely.”
In terms of how Canada should respond to the tariffs (see above), 34 per cent of respondents said “all of the above,” including export tariffs on key items to the U.S., dollar for dollar retaliation, and cutting off certain U.S. imports into Canada. 23 per cent of farmers see an export tariff on key items like potash and energy as the best response as the best singular option.
As we continue to follow the latest developments coming from the White House, I would like to thank all of the farmers that participated in answering these questions as they provide key insight into how farmers see this critical issue. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected].
Stay tuned for more results from the January Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index survey. If you’re a farmer or rancher, you can share your perspective by joining the RealAgristudies Insights Panel here.