Throughout the election in the United States, both Democrats and Republicans talked about the need to rebalance trading relationships with China due to the hollowing of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. With the election of Donald Trump, the path to settling trade scores was expected to be a harsher path, including potential trade wars.
Farmers and ranchers in North America rely on trade, but, according to two studies, the potential for trade wars is well recognized.
In the November intake of the CME Purdue Ag Barometer, forty-two percent of U.S. farmers said that a trade war is likely or very likely. The highest single response was the thirty-two percent that said they were neutral. This question was asked in reference to trade wars with the rest of the world and not specifically Canada. I believe it is fair to assume that for many farmers in the United States, this question would tweak thoughts of China the most as that is where the majority of the concern has resided for Republicans, Democrats and President Trump.
In January 2025, RealAgristudies asked a very similar question but asked Canadian farmers and ranchers specifically about a potential trade war with the United States. Farmers answered these questions January 23 through 29, 2025, leading into the potential 25 per cent tariffs threatened to be implemented on February 4.
Twenty-nine percent think that reduced exports to the US are very likely while forty six percent see this as likely. Clearly the majority of Canadian farmers see a trade war with the United States as probable.
Although it is hard to disagree with what North American farmers are telling us in the above data, we know that the tariff threats and trade war being threatened by President Trump is a very fluid situation that is bound to provide many twists and turns in the months ahead.
