Weather for the last half of this winter will likely be much different than what farmers and ranchers experienced in 2024.
That’s because the pattern has flipped from the El Nino-influenced conditions of 2024 to a La Nina influence for 2025, says Matt Makens of Makens Weather. In this report, he shares his take on the conditions in the months ahead with RealAgriculture’s Lyndsey Smith who caught up with the meteorologist this week in San Antonio, Texas at the National Cattleman’s Beef Association’s annual CattleCon.
“Last year was El Nino. That’s a bigger impacter for Western Canada than east. Now we’re La Nina. That means we get some cold. We felt that cold, but when we get into late spring, early summerish timeline, we’re going to dry out faster. So the biggest impact we will feel this year for the next three or four months, is much colder, and in the growing season, we’re going to dry out probably too fast in some cases.”
Smith points out that some areas have better snowpack than in previous years, but Makens cautions that most of the snow is on frozen ground, which will lead to runoff before the ground thaws. Smith also asks Makens whether the forecast is favourable for grass production to support rebuilding the U.S. and Canadian cow herds. He notes that last year’s good conditions have left some soil moisture, which will help early growth, especially for winter wheat, but he warns that June and July rainfall will be more isolated, making timing critical for grass health.
In the east, Makens agrees that milder winter conditions have prevailed and that pattern is likely to continue with milder temperatures and potentially wetter snows. He says farmers in the east will still see some cold snaps, but they should expect early green-up.
Makens says most of the Midwest had good moisture in November and December, which will provide a good start for grass. But concerns will arise in mid-May to June, and especially by July, as moisture levels will decline. He predicts that drought conditions will migrate from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest and the Canadian Prairies over the next six months. Listen to the interview below.
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