The fertilizer market doesn’t move in lock-step with the grain markets — both the peak demand and trends work on their own timelines. Which is too bad, of course, when commodity prices drop but fertilizer prices don’t follow suit.
Both the fertilizer and commodity markets are, however, working through uncertainty and trade disruption created by U.S. tariff threats and the spectre of counter-tariffs, says Josh Linville, fertilizer analyst with StoneX.
Phosphate, potash, and nitrogen fertilizer are all impacted by trade flows and global supply and demand shifts, Linville says, but whereas the phosphate market is in a pretty good spot, both N and K markets could see price volatility in the weeks and months ahead.
Even the threat of a thickening Canada-U.S. border has likely spurred quite a bit of product movement into the U.S. and had an impact on trade volumes, Linville says, so it remains to be seen if demand is actually higher for potash, for example, or if more demand just happened sooner in the season.
Related: Making the case for a free and open fertilizer market
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