The U.S. and Canadian cow-herds are both at record lows, at a time when cattle prices are reaching record highs. The market signal to build the herd is there; however, the reality of realizing strong income selling at these prices and several years of drought means ranchers have been in sell mode, not build.
That tide may be shifting, as CattleFax predicts a slightly larger U.S. cow-herd in ’26 and ’27, assuming a return to better moisture conditions in the key regions of North America.
Grass growth is a key piece of the re-build puzzle, says Angus Gidley-Baird, animal protein analyst with Rabobank based at Sydney, Australia.
Australia went through a liquidation of its cattle herd in 2013 to 2015, then a more dramatic drop in 2020 following an extreme drought in 2019. Gidley-Baird says the second cut was more dramatic and really ate into the supply of breeding cows.
Since then, however, Australia has navigated low cattle numbers and a move to rebuilding the cow herd. Gidley-Baird says that the turn around has been quicker than some anticipated, but requires holding back heifers when calf prices are really good. “That decision to rebuild is a frame of mind,” he says, adding that it takes a mindset shift to focus on building the herd.
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