Between trade wars, threats of annexation, and a wild swing in federal polling, there’s a lot going on in Canadian politics right now.
We asked our RealAg audience on social media what kind of questions they have while we’re in the early part of this 36-day federal election campaign. Here are some of the questions we’ve received, so far, and what we can find for answers from some highly trusted sources:
(Keep the questions coming, and we’ll keep working on finding answers!)
What happens after Parliament is dissolved?
The government enters what’s called “caretaker convention.” The executive—aka cabinet—is still in place. The Prime Minister and cabinet ministers can respond to major issues, such as tariffs or a natural disaster, but they can’t pass any new laws and are supposed to stick to non-controversial or urgent business, since they are no longer answering to Parliament.
This includes deferring — as much as possible — appointments, policy decisions, new spending, and negotiations. They’re supposed to preserve options for the future to not bind the next government, do routine business in as low a profile as possible, and avoid participating in high-profile domestic and international events.
That’s the gist of it, but the rules for what a caretaker government can and can’t do are not black and white, so there may be some interpretation required during the 2025 election if there are any dramatic moves by the Trump administration that broadly affect Canadians.
During the 2015 campaign, for example, the Canadian government participated in and announced the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal negotiations. Prime Minister Harper, acting as PM and not Conservative leader, also announced compensation during the writ period that was seen to be part of the conclusion of the negotiations.
Provincial governments are not subject to any of the caretaker rules, but the federal election rules likely freeze programs that are jointly funded with the federal government, such as business risk management programs in agriculture. This is probably why Ag Minister Kody Blois went ahead on the eve of the election with announcing the federal government had approved changes to AgriStability without the provincial governments getting on board. It’s still not clear if the changes can actually take effect during the election campaign, even if the provinces sign on to their portion of the 60/40 federal/provincial cost-share formula.
The federal government remains under this caretaker convention until the new government is sworn in.
What will the caretaker government do if the U.S. applies major reciprocal tariffs during the election campaign on April 2nd?
The Canadian government will likely follow through on implementing retaliatory tariffs on a previously-proposed list of up to C$125 billion in U.S. imports, adding to earlier list of $30 billion.
Most experts say a caretaker government would be allowed to do this due to the extraordinary nature of the U.S. tariffs and the impact on the Canadian economy. It also helps that all major parties support a similar approach.
Has Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said anything about the Chinese tariffs on canola oil, meal, peas, pork, and seafood?
Not that we’ve seen, but Conservative shadow minister for agriculture John Barlow sent out a statement saying “Conservatives condemn China’s latest tariffs attacking our farmers.” He also said Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminium were a legitimate response to illegal Chinese dumping, unfair trading practices and national security concerns, and that the Liberals should have done more to diversify export markets over the last nine and half years.
Poilievre is on the record as supporting Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum, having called for their implementation to match U.S. policy last summer.
How can Mark Carney be Prime Minister with no seat in the House of Commons?
In Canada’s parliamentary system, we vote for our local Member of Parliament, who is almost always a member of a party. We don’t vote for Prime Minister. The leader of the party that holds the most seats or confidence of the House of Commons gets to be Prime Minister, but there is no requirement that the leader of the party be an MP. It has happened a few other times, with the leaders always moving quickly to be elected to Parliament.
As of the last sitting in December, the Liberals still held the confidence of the House, so their leader gets to be Prime Minister.
Has the carbon tax really been axed?
The legislation is still in place, but the rate for the consumer carbon tax has been adjusted to zero and will no longer be collected, effective April 1. The mechanism is still in place, so it could be brought back relatively easily. The Conservatives have committed to repealing the underlying Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act if they form government, but it’s not clear whether the Liberals would.
At the same time, the industrial carbon tax or output-based pricing system for large emitters, such as fertilizer manufacturers, is still in effect. Poilievre has said the Conservatives would cancel it, while Carney has talked about enhancing it and creating more opportunities for Canadians to get paid with credits. In theory, there’s a potential revenue stream for agriculture under the industrial carbon tax system if the details around carbon credits are ever sorted out.
Carney has also said he would develop a carbon border adjustment for taxing emissions-intense imports.
Who will win the election?
Ha, we don’t know.
What is a coalition government? Is that something Canada could end up with?
It is. A coalition government is a legitimate form of government that can occur when no party commands a majority of the seats in the House of Commons. It’s when multiple parties enter into a formal agreement, with the participating parties represented in cabinet and government. To form government, the coalition must convince the Governor General they have the confidence of the House.
This is different from the recent Confidence and Supply Agreement where the NDP agreed to support the Liberals in exchange for Liberal action on NDP priorities without the NDP actually becoming part of the government.
One not impossible scenario coming out of this election that would likely test the strength of confederation: Conservatives win the most seats, but the Liberals join with the New Democrats to outnumber the Conservatives and ask the Governor General to recognize their coalition as government.
While coalition governments are rare and potentially unpopular in the Canadian context, they occur regularly in other parliamentary systems around the world.
We like the new ag minister, Kody Blois. If the Conservatives win the election, is it possible that Blois could remain ag minister?
Very, very, very unlikely. Opposition members typically don’t get the privilege of serving in cabinet, with a couple notable historical exceptions during the World Wars when Prime Ministers Borden and Mackenzie King, respectively, welcomed members of other political stripes to show unity.
The other way this could technically happen would be if Blois crossed the floor to join the Conservatives. His riding has a history with high profile floor crossing in the other direction, as former Kings-Hants MP Scott Brison joined the Liberals in 2003 days after his colleagues in the Progressive Conservative Party voted to merge with the Canadian Alliance to form the Conservative Party of Canada.
It’s highly unlikely any MP would cross the floor within days of running under another party banner, but there’s one notable example where this happened. In 2006, Stephen Harper convinced BC Liberal MP David Emerson to cross the floor between election day and the swearing in of cabinet. Emerson’s decision to cross was kept secret until he showed up at Rideau Hall to be sworn in as trade minister in the Conservative minority cabinet. Harper also surprised many by appointing someone who was not an MP or Senator to cabinet in 2006. After naming him to cabinet, Harper appointed Michael Fortier to the Senate, with the expectation he run for a seat in the House of Commons in the next federal election.
If we have an election and Carney fails to win his riding, but the Liberals form government, is he still allowed to be Prime Minister?
Technically, yes. Again, the Prime Minister is the leader of the governing party, whether they have a seat or not. It’s convention that they would try to get a seat as soon as possible. It’s very unlikely this scenario will happen as Carney has chosen to run in the Liberal-safe Ottawa-area riding of Nepean.
Sidenote: Canada hasn’t had a Prime Minister representing a constituency in the nation’s capital since John A. MacDonald in the 1880s. Both frontrunners, Carney and Poilievre, are running in Ottawa ridings.
