While many of the acreage decisions are already made, recent trade turmoil and tariff threats will absolutely factor in to both commodity prices and cropping figures, says Brian Comeault, co-founder of new market analyst firm Ireland Comeault Lafoy (ICL).
Farmers — and their advisors — are grappling with a near-constant barrage of trade unknowns, including both U.S. and Chinese tariff threats and realities.
Comeault says that there are some crops, such as wheat, that perhaps have more upside potential than others; or some, such as canola or beans, with more downside risk. At this point, not taking a position in the market is a position, Comeault says, as some traders and farmers alike choose to sit out the volatility until more is known about market pressures.
Amid the turmoil is another unknown — who will lead Canada into the year ahead? An election call is likely to come Sunday, March 23, with a late April or early May election likely.
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