While most Canadian eyes and ears have been tuned to the U.S. and its president’s next move, the U.S. markets have been focused on China. So much of the current news cycle has been centred on the U.S. tariffs on Canadian products, but there is another U.S. policy looming — on incoming Chinese and Chinese-made cargo vessels — that could devastate trade flows if it moves ahead as planned.
In this interview, Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, provides much needed background on what’s happening with the Chinese economy as a whole, including economic stimulus, consumer confidence, property values and personal wealth.
It’s not a rosy picture, and when tariffs and trade disruption are overlaid on it, the impacts become “painful,” Suderman says. And then the potentially “apocalyptic” cargo tariff is added to the mix.
What does it mean for corn, soybeans, beef and pork? The proposed fees on Chinese-built ships could significantly increase U.S. corn export costs by up to 57 cents per bushel, Suderman says. In the meat sector, beef and pork supplies are tight, with consumer demand holding steady despite declining economic confidence — can that be sustained if a massive cargo tariff is applied?
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