With just weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls, political commentator Ryan Jespersen is just as surprised as Shaun Haney that the federal election has become a neck-and-neck contest between Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and newly-elected Liberal leader Mark Carney.
Jespersen, host of the Alberta-based talk show Real Talk, said the mood among some voters has shifted significantly, noting the stark contrast to earlier projections that gave Conservatives a 25-point lead. He attributes much of the shift to Carney’s dominant leadership victory and his ability to rebrand the Liberal Party while distancing it from outgoing leader Justin Trudeau’s controversies.
“Carney was able to commandeer the change narrative,” Jespersen says, referring to Carney’s reputation as a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. “He’s positioned as the steady hand.”
Affordability is still a top concern for voters, thought it has been over-shadowed by Donald Trump and the U.S. trade war. But Canadians are focused on day-to-day struggles over increasing food prices, housing costs, and fuel affordability — concerns the polls suggest Carney is addressing with an economist’s credibility.
Meanwhile, Poilievre’s earlier support of the 2022 trucker convoy continues to cost him, particularly in Ontario. “That has hurt him,” Haney says, adding that the Liberals don’t need to bring it up anymore; the damage is already baked into public perception.
Both Jespersen and Haney agree the election has become less about policy and more about who appears most “prime ministerial” in the eyes of undecided voters.
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