Canadian trade-dependent agricultural stakeholders are keeping a close eye on the political turbulence in Washington, D.C., as cross-border trade dynamics with the United States continue to evolve. A recent delegation trip by the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA) to the U.S. capitol revealed a cautious but strategic atmosphere surrounding the future of agricultural trade—and a metaphorical “runway” that may be shortening.
Michael Harvey, executive director of CAFTA, joined RealAg Radio to share key takeaways from the mission, which brought together a broad coalition of Canadian agricultural groups including the Canola Council of Canada, Grain Growers of Canada, and Pulse Canada.
Harvey noted that while most meetings with congressional representatives offered goodwill, support for current U.S. trade policies appeared conditional. “Republicans, both congressmen and staffers, indicated to us that they were strongly supportive of the president, but on the specific question of tariffs, they kept using the phrase that they were giving the president some runway,” Harvey says. “Which I took as a not very committal type of support.”
The metaphor raises questions: Is this metaphorical runway long enough for meaningful policy improvement—or is it a short taxi toward continued or even worse trade turbulence?
According to Harvey, the runway’s length isn’t fixed but is instead highly political: “That runway can change a lot based on what they’re hearing from their constituents… These people live in permanent campaigns and are constantly recalculating these things,” he says, noting that the mid-term elections this fall will be a proving ground for Trump’s policy support.
CAFTA’s goal wasn’t to shift U.S. policy overnight, but rather to raise awareness and gather intelligence. “We didn’t think a group of Canadian Agri-food Alliance members was going to flip President Trump’s position on tariffs,” Harvey admitted, “but in terms of raising awareness and increasing our own understanding of the situation on the ground, I think it was very positive.”
Despite the uncertainty, Harvey stressed that the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) remains vital for both Canadian and American farmers. “Undermining Canada-U.S. trade is bad for you,” he said, addressing American listeners directly. “Canadian agri-food products reduce your input costs… it’s bad for you financially, it makes you weaker, it makes you poorer.”
With tensions still unfolding and some tariff policies on pause, CAFTA and its members are planning to maintain a closer presence in Washington as they navigate what could be a long—though hopefully short—runway in U.S. trade restrictions.
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