While political headlines continue to stir tariff concerns, ag markets may be entering a more grounded phase. Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research joined Shaun Haney to discuss how commodity markets—especially in Canada—are navigating current pressures.
“Markets are kind of, maybe in a bit of a period of wishful thinking, or hoping all of this just goes away,” Penner says, referring to recent trade tensions. Though agricultural products have largely avoided tariff fallout under the CUSMA agreement, Penner cautions that China remains a wild card.
With spring seeding getting underway, weather is becoming a key driver of price direction. “There are areas of concern of dryness,” Penner notes, pointing to northern areas of the Prairies and parts of Montana and North Dakota. While it’s early to call crop damage, these regional patterns are shaping short-term market sentiment.
Penner also stresses seasonality in pricing. “Once you get to early to mid-June, prices just slide during the summer… that seasonal tendency is almost inevitable.” For crops such as canola and lentils, a spring pricing window may not last long, even if fundamentals remain supportive.
On canola, Penner highlights ongoing strength despite policy risks. “There’s really good reasons for canola to be strong—tight supplies, strong crushing—but it’s not going to just keep going higher,” he cautions. As for exports, Canadian canola oil is increasingly diversifying beyond the U.S., though China’s stance on seed imports remains uncertain.
Penner also flags shifting fortunes in durum, with improving growing conditions in key import regions such as Italy and North Africa dampening price prospects. Oat markets, meanwhile, remain stable, with the U.S. drawing more supply domestically.
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