As geopolitical tensions ripple across continents, Canada finds itself increasingly impacted by events well beyond its borders—from a shifting U.S. foreign policy to renewed conflict in South Asia.
In this episode of Frontlines, RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney and Jacob Shapiro, director of research at Bespoke Group, unpack how current global events are reshaping Canadian trade, politics, and strategic alignment.
Shapiro says Canada’s recent federal election outcome may have been influenced more by Washington than Ottawa. U.S. President Donald Trump’s inflammatory “51st state” rhetoric and open disdain for Canada’s Conservative leadership may have helped push voters toward Liberal leader Mark Carney.
The larger question now is whether Canada can or should diversify its trade portfolio. With over 80 per cent of exports flowing south, re-orienting toward Europe or Asia would demand immense investment and political will and may mean pain before progress, Shapiro says.
Meanwhile, Trump’s second-term foreign policy approach is proving chaotic and uncoordinated. Shapiro describes a White House torn between strategic planners and more aggressive hardliners, leading to policy volatility that has alarmed allies from Japan to South Korea. “They’re hedging,” says Shapiro, “because they don’t know what’s coming next.”
Trust is also eroding. Trump’s preference for symbolic deal-making over substantive strategy has left allies wary. “Short-term PR wins are costing long-term trust,” Shapiro says, pointing to South Korea’s skepticism after a shallow trade update was paraded as a major breakthrough.
On the Ukraine front, Shapiro emphasized that Europe, not the U.S., is now the key player. With the U.S. distracted and internally divided, European nations are boosting defence spending and supplying arms. “Germany and the UK are stepping up because they’ve realized they can’t rely on the U.S. anymore,” he says.
Beyond Europe, new flashpoints are emerging. In South Asia, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following a terrorist attack in Kashmir. India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a pact dating back to 1960. With both countries armed with nuclear weapons, the risk of miscalculation is serious. “This is not just noise,” says Shapiro. “It’s a signal of potential conflict in a region with global implications.”
As the world shifts toward a more multipolar reality, Canada will be forced to navigate a landscape where old alliances are less stable and new trade partners come with complex strings attached.
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