Tight supplies and steady demand continue to underpin strength in the canola market, even as global trade tensions swirl. With futures contracts recently hitting new highs, Canadian growers are navigating both pricing opportunities and risk management challenges as we near the summer stretch.
In this RealAg Markets discussion, Brian Comeault with Ireland Comeault Lafoy shares a detailed market outlook, highlighting strong crush margins, persistent export demand, and what he describes as “tight” on-farm stocks. “According to StatsCan, farmers delivered nearly 2 million tonnes of canola in April, leaving just 1.9 million tonnes on-farm at the end of May—a time of year when movement typically slows,” Comeault says.
Crushers and buyers are still offering premiums, suggesting competition for remaining supplies. He says this is another indicator of the tight market: “It’s hard to get farmers to open the binders and sell canola, likely because there isn’t a whole lot of it left."
The discussion also touches on how recent tariff threats have played out. While China’s tariffs on canola oil and meal raised alarms, they notably excluded seed. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs never materialized, thanks in part to protections under the USMCA. “The industry just looked at it as business as usual… demand for seed into China and processed product into the U.S. hasn’t slowed,” Comeault says.
Looking ahead, he notes that while chart signals remain bullish, producers should remain disciplined. “We’ve advocated for taking some risk off the table when markets revisit previous highs,” he says, recommending strategies like floor pricing and options to manage volatility.
As for acreage, early seeding and in-season seed sales may have supported stronger-than-expected canola plantings. “The early planting season tends to favour canola,” he says.
