Despite a wetter-than-average start to the year in parts of the United States, significant drought persists across the country, and farmers should brace for further weather volatility, according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.
Speaking at the National Association of Farm Broadcasters event this week in Washington, D.C., Rippey offered a comprehensive update on current drought conditions, disaster trends, and seasonal forecasts.
“We’re only a third of the way through 2025, and we’ve already seen major flooding events, early-season wildfires, and concerning drought patterns,” said Rippey.
More than a third of the continental U.S. — about 37 per cent — is currently in drought, with the most affected areas in the Southwest and Northern Plains. Though down from a peak of 54 per cent in late 2024, the number remains high. States such as Texas, the Dakotas, and Florida are being watched closely for drought intensification as summer approaches, he says.
Spring flooding in parts of the Mid-South and Lower Midwest, particularly along the Ohio River, marked one of the most significant water events in nearly three decades. While urban centres were largely spared, agricultural land across Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and surrounding states saw moderate to major flooding.
Heading into planting season, conditions for key crops, corn and soybeans, have improved. Only 20 per cent of corn acres and 15 per cent of soybean acres are in drought areas currently, down from a high of over 80 per cent last fall. However, forage and livestock regions remain under pressure, with 28 per cent of hay production and 31 per cent of cattle inventory areas still affected by drought.
“There’s optimism, but also caution,” Rippey noted. “We’re seeing improvement, but we can’t ignore the risks still on the horizon.”
Rippey confirmed that the equatorial Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral phase following a short-lived La Niña. Forecasts suggest neutral conditions will persist through the summer, with a roughly 40 per cent chance of La Niña returning by the end of 2025.
This neutral state, paired with above-average ocean temperatures globally, has contributed to rising land temperatures. A ridge of high pressure is expected to form over the northwestern U.S. by early summer, potentially fueling drought persistence and increasing wildfire risk — particularly in California and the Pacific Northwest.
January’s wildfires in Southern California were already among the most destructive in state history, claiming 30 lives and burning large areas despite early-season rainfall.
As hurricane season nears, Colorado State University forecasts 17 named storms in 2025, with a higher-than-average chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline—underscoring the need for producers to stay alert.
