While inflation fears and tariff threats have dominated headlines, the real forces shaping agricultural markets may lie elsewhere, says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX.
In a one-on-one interview with Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, Suderman described 2025’s economic performance as unexpectedly stable. “The economy as a whole is fairly resilient right now and still hanging on,” he said, despite what he called “a lot of turbulence” and persistent uncertainty around tariffs and tax policy.
Rather than blaming trade friction alone for shifts in commodity exports, Suderman points to foreign exchange pressures as a more significant challenge: “Our biggest problem in exporting ag commodities, particularly corn and soybeans… has not been the tariffs. It has been the dollar and currencies of our competing countries."
He explains that a weaker U.S. dollar could improve export competitiveness, particularly against Brazil, which has steadily gained market share in soybeans and corn since the early 2010s.
In livestock, the market saw an immediate drop following news of a limited reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports to the U.S., but Suderman characterized the market’s reaction as exaggerated, with cattle flows likely to start slow before increasing depending on regulatory cooperation between both countries.
On the crop side, favourable weather forecasts through mid-July will likely lead traders to expect above-trend yields and high ending stocks, triggering selling pressure. Conversely, if long-term heat and dryness move into the short-term outlook, a price rally could follow.
Suderman also emphasized the growing role of domestic biofuel policies in oilseed markets, suggesting that Canadian canola may play a larger role in feedstock supply as the U.S. moves to prioritize North American production.
