Author: Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, SK, where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, he spent some time working in finance before starting FarmLead.com, a risk-free, transparent online and mobile grain marketplace (app available for iOS & Android). His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email ([email protected]) or phone (1-855-332-7653).

Protectionist policies slap grain markets around

Grain markets had a very rough week heading into the middle of June, surrounded by trade uncertainty and positive crop conditions. In fact, forget about crop conditions. Or rainfall. Or heat units. Whether or not the borders are open for business has become the only fundamental factor that really seems to matter to the direction… Read more »

Weather and geopolitical risk —This week in the grain markets

Except for wheat, grain markets this week trended mostly lower. The oilseed complex saw a significant sell-off as the start to the U.S. growing season has been good. Further, there haven’t been any noticeable discussion between the U.S. and China regarding trade. The market is interpreting this as bearish for soybeans. Next week Tuesday, June… Read more »

Trade war rhetoric — This week in the grain markets

After just a one-week break, grain markets were again plagued by geopolitical risk with the phrase “trade war” hitting the headlines everywhere. Pressuring Canadian grain prices was the Canadian Dollar hitting a two-month low, closing below US$0.77. But the majority of both the grain and broader markets impacts was, once again, U.S. President Donald Trump… Read more »

Soybean shuffles and canola climbs — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets were mostly higher this week in a risk-off sort of mood thanks to a relaxed tone of the trade war narrative we’ve been hearing, as well as a some weather premium creeping into the complex. Nearly two months ago, you could say soybeans (and soybean prices) were on the verge of Armaggedon as… Read more »

This week, grain markets say “meh” to plant ’18

So, how about that late start to the #plant18 campaign? Recent crop reports suggest it doesn’t really exist. In the U.S., planting caught up to the long-term averages in corn and soybeans, but American spring and durum wheat seeding campaigns are certainly running behind schedule, which has helped prices a bit. According to the latest… Read more »

Brushing off the WASDE report — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets ended mostly in the red this week as the market dealt with some full-tilt planting progress and a few reports. There were some bullish ideas in Thursday’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, but it didn’t seem like the market believed it! (much like other grain reports,… Read more »

Slow seeding jumpstarts prices — This week in the grain markets

Grain prices this week were mostly in the green as the market continues to weigh geopolitical risk versus weather risk (and thus, planting risk). And though planting is certainly behind in many areas of the major North American growing regions, it’s still early (relatively speaking). U.S seeding is well below behind the usual averages, and… Read more »

Competitive for acres, exports — This week in the grain markets

Grain prices this week ended mixed as speculative players took profits off the table amidst growing weather and geopolitical risk. Delays in U.S. corn plantings and concerns about Chinese trade dominated the headlines. It’s still early, but just 3% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of Sunday. Conditions this week weren’t great in… Read more »

Place your bets — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets were volatile this week with prices flip-flopping on what was more concerning — geopolitical risk or weather. Much less concerning were most of the largely market-anticipated USDA numbers. Some notable data-points from this week’s WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates): Russia’s wheat exports raised by 1 MMT  to 38.5 million (a record);… Read more »

Playing chicken with a trade war — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets this week were extremely volatile as they digested all of the information thrown at them, particularly that out of Washington and Beijing. China proposed a 25% import tax on soybeans, which took the market by a huge surprise (and left many scratching their heads at how China plans to meet their feedstuff demand)…. Read more »

Finding bullish hope in acres — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets finished the end of March and the calendar quarter on a bit of a high as the USDA provided a slightly bullish catalyst on the last day of trading. This could provide some active, but volatile, trading in the first week of April. Until Thursday, soybean prices and corn prices headed lower as… Read more »

A dose of reality — This week in the grain markets

Grain markets this week took a bit of a geopolitical hit with a subdued approach to more talk of trade war. Specifically, this week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to place tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. But China isn’t ready to be pushed around. On Friday, the country announced a… Read more »

Looking for direction — this week in the grain markets

Grain markets had another volatile week as we dealt with conflicting bullish and bearish variables including, but not limited to: exports, acreage forecasts, weather forecasts, and currency swings. Sounds like a normal week, right? First, the Canadian dollar lost nearly 2% this week to close under 76.5 cents USD. This is the first time it… Read more »

Swimming with WASDE: This week in the grain market

This past week’s grain markets were highlighted by the USDA’s March installment of the monthly WASDE report. Going into the report, the market was looking for some big changes to South American production possibilities, but it wasn’t necessarily expecting the American balance sheet to provide the surprises. The USDA dropped its estimate of the Argentine… Read more »

Marching in like a bull — A recap on the grain markets

February 2018 will go down in history as the month that Argentina’s soybean crop hit a new crisis level. Ongoing drought across the region coupled with delays in Brazil’s harvest has unleashed speculations across the soybean complex. For the month, the May contract in Chicago closed at 5.5%, continuing the frantic surge caused by short-term… Read more »