Author: Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, SK, where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, he spent some time working in finance before starting FarmLead.com, a risk-free, transparent online and mobile grain marketplace (app available for iOS & Android). His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email ([email protected]) or phone (1-855-332-7653).

Dodging Shadows and Jumping Futures — A Grain Market Recap

Grain prices started the month of February looking to come out of the gate running – mainly from their January shadow (much like the groundhog did, but you probably don’t need a rodent to tell you if winter’s over or not if you live in Canada). Most of North American’s major growing regions are starting… Read more »

The Grain Markets this Week — A Return to Risk?

Grain markets ended the month of January well below where they started, despite volatile currencies, weather, and geo-political risk keeping prices off the lows. Managed money continue to drop their net long positions in the agricultural complex recently to its lowest levels since October, mainly thanks to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Investors in… Read more »

The Grain Markets This Week — The International Grains Council, Russia and Diverging Prices

Grain prices continued to slide on the futures boards through the middle of January as the complex continues to sort through supply and demand tables (the former, supply, being more plentiful at this point in time). Mostly, grain markets are feeling the effects of a strong U.S. dollar, while other currencies are suffering due to lower oil… Read more »

Downside Risk on Soybeans, Strong Demand for Canola Feature in This Week’s Market News

On Monday, January 12th, the USDA released its January installment of the WASDE repor. Heading into the report, most analysts were bearish, and the report ended up showing some increased corn demand compared to the December report, which is why corn was the only grain that was green/higher by the end of the day. Specifically,… Read more »

Kick Off to ’15 Grain Markets Goes Wide

Grain markets started 2015 out on a bad foot as the first trading day of the year on Friday, January 2nd was all red. But the complex rebounded in the following days thanks to weather concerns and managed-money changing positions. Oats, corn, (Chicago) wheat, and soybeans continue to hover over some nice even numbers of… Read more »

The Difference a Year Makes — Grain Markets in Review

2014 started out with a lot of frustration: Grain was hardly moving through Canada as the Great White North experienced some record cold temperatures and record ice cover on the Great Lakes. With the railroads making more money moving oil, elevators couldn’t take deliveries and the amount of ships sitting at the port waiting for… Read more »

China Approves Corn GM Traits, Russia Bumps Interest Rates & a Railway Gets Fined — Markets in Review

Global markets were blindsided by Russia in the third week of December as Moscow raised its key interest rates to a shocking 17 per cent, up significantly from the 10.5 per cent level they had been just raised to a few days earlier. Why the rate increase? The ruble has been free-falling this year with… Read more »

Russia’s in a Pickle, Oil is Cheap (ish) & Southern Soybeans Abound — A Market Update

Rumours are building again that Russia may limit their grain exports (specifically wheat) and the government might start increasing the purchasing price from farmers for the government reserve stocks (the government is definitely worried about rising domestic food prices). This would incentivize producers to sell to the government versus grain merchants/exporters. SovEcon said earlier in… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Expensive US Wheat, Thin Margins & Questions Around Chinese Demand

Grains started the month of December with wheat in the driver’s seat thanks to concerns out of Russia and Australia. In the Land Down Undaa, ABARES, the Aussie version of the USDA, cut its official wheat production estimate by one million tonnes (or about four per cent from its previous estimate) to 23.22 million tonnes,… Read more »

Great Deals on Oil, Plus How Railroad Closures & Restrictions Are Impacting Global Grain Markets

Grain prices closed the month of November generally higher as colder weather and transportation issues in the U.S. helped prices maintain an elevated level. While most Americans were putting the turkey in the oven, OPEC, the cartel of major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, declined to ease their production from the current 30 million barrels-per-day…. Read more »

This Week’s Market Recap: Ethanol Uncertainty, Lawsuits and Quality Bread

Rounding out the middle of November, the markets seemed to pause a bit and then dropped lower as some farmer selling increased and likely the last of U.S. corn and soybeans fields were being harvested for 2014, as most places now have too much snow on the ground. While U.S. soybean crush volumes from October show that… Read more »

This Week’s Market Recap: Lower U.S. Corn Yields, South American Soybean Planting & Poor Weather Down Undaa

This just in — it’s winter. Snow is starting to fall across most areas around and above the 49th parallel, which will limit the ability to take off the remaining U.S. corn and soybean fields (some might have to wait until spring!). The cold could also have a negative effect on the winter wheat which… Read more »

Market Recap: Bearish Bets and Volume Concerns

The grain and oilseed market started the month of November the opposite of how it ended October, as the market dropped lower on the U.S. harvest catching up to its historical average pace and a stronger U.S. dollar (which can help Canadian exports, hence basis in Western Canada narrowing recently). Lack of consistent rail service… Read more »

The Fall Markets Review — Mustering Up a Mild Rally or Settling in For the Season?

As we say goodbye to October, colder weather is setting in just as the markets could be warming up. More than a few analysts are pointing to soy meal as a driver of the sustained rally we’ve seen in the grain markets recently, but the move is now beyond “rational levels”. With an increase in… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Soy and Corn Feel the Pressure and Durum is on Another Planet

Grains started to trek higher this week as we head towards the end of the month, mostly due to international market prices picking up pace. However, by Friday, October 24th, it appeared that the rally was short-lived as the market dropped well below its monthly highs. Specifically, canola almost made it up to $420 per… Read more »