Author: Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, SK, where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, he spent some time working in finance before starting, a risk-free, transparent online and mobile grain marketplace (app available for iOS & Android). His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email ([email protected]) or phone (1-855-332-7653).

Russia’s in a Pickle, Oil is Cheap (ish) & Southern Soybeans Abound — A Market Update

Rumours are building again that Russia may limit their grain exports (specifically wheat) and the government might start increasing the purchasing price from farmers for the government reserve stocks (the government is definitely worried about rising domestic food prices). This would incentivize producers to sell to the government versus grain merchants/exporters. SovEcon said earlier in… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Expensive US Wheat, Thin Margins & Questions Around Chinese Demand

Grains started the month of December with wheat in the driver’s seat thanks to concerns out of Russia and Australia. In the Land Down Undaa, ABARES, the Aussie version of the USDA, cut its official wheat production estimate by one million tonnes (or about four per cent from its previous estimate) to 23.22 million tonnes,… Read more »

Great Deals on Oil, Plus How Railroad Closures & Restrictions Are Impacting Global Grain Markets

Grain prices closed the month of November generally higher as colder weather and transportation issues in the U.S. helped prices maintain an elevated level. While most Americans were putting the turkey in the oven, OPEC, the cartel of major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, declined to ease their production from the current 30 million barrels-per-day…. Read more »

This Week’s Market Recap: Ethanol Uncertainty, Lawsuits and Quality Bread

Rounding out the middle of November, the markets seemed to pause a bit and then dropped lower as some farmer selling increased and likely the last of U.S. corn and soybeans fields were being harvested for 2014, as most places now have too much snow on the ground. While U.S. soybean crush volumes from October show that… Read more »

This Week’s Market Recap: Lower U.S. Corn Yields, South American Soybean Planting & Poor Weather Down Undaa

This just in — it’s winter. Snow is starting to fall across most areas around and above the 49th parallel, which will limit the ability to take off the remaining U.S. corn and soybean fields (some might have to wait until spring!). The cold could also have a negative effect on the winter wheat which… Read more »

Market Recap: Bearish Bets and Volume Concerns

The grain and oilseed market started the month of November the opposite of how it ended October, as the market dropped lower on the U.S. harvest catching up to its historical average pace and a stronger U.S. dollar (which can help Canadian exports, hence basis in Western Canada narrowing recently). Lack of consistent rail service… Read more »

The Fall Markets Review — Mustering Up a Mild Rally or Settling in For the Season?

As we say goodbye to October, colder weather is setting in just as the markets could be warming up. More than a few analysts are pointing to soy meal as a driver of the sustained rally we’ve seen in the grain markets recently, but the move is now beyond “rational levels”. With an increase in… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Soy and Corn Feel the Pressure and Durum is on Another Planet

Grains started to trek higher this week as we head towards the end of the month, mostly due to international market prices picking up pace. However, by Friday, October 24th, it appeared that the rally was short-lived as the market dropped well below its monthly highs. Specifically, canola almost made it up to $420 per… Read more »

The Week in Markets — We’re Talking Currency and Oil!

Wheat markets were up about four percent in the post-Canadian Thanksgiving rally as the grain markets all headed higher on quality and harvest progress concerns. That in mind, because of the delayed U.S. harvest, there could still be a lot of grain that doesn’t have a home on the farm and so will be sold… Read more »

This Week in Markets — Russian Production, Grocery-Store-Owned Farms & Railroad He-Said He-Said

While some were thinking of turkey and pumpkin pie ahead of the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend, the grain market got a hold of the USDA’s October WASDE report. The report pushed some volatility in trading and wheat and canola closed in the red for the week, despite their hot start and trend to the upside… Read more »

Grain Prices Drift Lower on Production Estimates in the US & Canada

Grain prices started the month of October the same way they’ve been trending for the last five months: lower. Last week saw two important reports from the USDA and Statistics Canada, recording grain inventories and ’14 production estimates respectively. With some of the earliest-planted fields of corn and soybeans coming off in the American Midwest,… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Harvest Ruts, Hedge Funds and Higher Yields

Grain prices are in that seasonal rut thanks to #harvest14 selling pressure and favourable planting conditions as South America starts its seeding season. On the speculation side, hedge funds are starting to increase their optimism that grain and oilseed prices will begin to rise. That being said, in the last four decades, an ounce of… Read more »

The Markets This Week — The End of the Easy-To-Move Grain, Export Estimates & Quality Spreads

Heading past the halfway point of September, the pace of the North American harvest picked up with excellent weather allowing crops to dry out from late growing-season rains. That being said, the quality of the crop coming off is quite variable with reports of fields next to each other swaying a few grades one way… Read more »

The Markets This Week — Rebounding Opportunities?

Grains this week fell significantly as harvest pressure starts to hit full tilt in the North American markets. Most of the northern half of North America and parts of Australia are experiencing some cold weather, which has the bulls frothing to see prices move higher, but the trend continues to head lower as bears are… Read more »

Buy the Rumour? A Look at the Markets this Week

Coming off the long weekend in North America, the grains market started the month of September trying to hold onto higher levels on varying weather affecting crop development and the situation continuing to unfold in eastern Europe. While reports vary on a proposed ceasefire between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists, the latest rumour to… Read more »