Through the spring of 2018, we have talked about several common themes for the cattle markets that impact the fundamentals of this market. Even though Live Cattle futures finished up over $2 on Friday, the trade has been quite choppy, which gives traders little confidence that we are headed higher from here. Here is a… Read more »
Category: Markets
Canola and soybean divergence — one is flat and the other is a falling knife
In a week that featured multiple major commodity market stories, the oilseed complex faced several variables pushing soybeans and canola in opposite directions. In the nearby month (July), canola was up 0.48% while soybeans fell 6.58% to lead all agricultural commodities lower. On Thursday’s edition of RealAg Radio, Shaun Haney and Jon Driedger, FarmLink Marketing… Read more »
Protectionist policies slap grain markets around
Grain markets had a very rough week heading into the middle of June, surrounded by trade uncertainty and positive crop conditions. In fact, forget about crop conditions. Or rainfall. Or heat units. Whether or not the borders are open for business has become the only fundamental factor that really seems to matter to the direction… Read more »
Weather and geopolitical risk —This week in the grain markets
Except for wheat, grain markets this week trended mostly lower. The oilseed complex saw a significant sell-off as the start to the U.S. growing season has been good. Further, there haven’t been any noticeable discussion between the U.S. and China regarding trade. The market is interpreting this as bearish for soybeans. Next week Tuesday, June… Read more »
Beef Market Update – Strong beef demand, lower carcass weights, and the wall
It has been a busy week in the cattle markets, as Canada and the United States are on the brink of a trade war that we would not have imagined a year ago. Much of that is out of the control of feedyard owners and ranchers, but the impacts will most certainly be felt, depending… Read more »
Trade war rhetoric — This week in the grain markets
After just a one-week break, grain markets were again plagued by geopolitical risk with the phrase “trade war” hitting the headlines everywhere. Pressuring Canadian grain prices was the Canadian Dollar hitting a two-month low, closing below US$0.77. But the majority of both the grain and broader markets impacts was, once again, U.S. President Donald Trump… Read more »
China steps up purchases of peas in India’s absence
With India closing its border to pulse imports late last year, China is seizing the opportunity to buy competitively-priced protein and ramping up its imports of peas from Canada. The value of pea exports from Canada to China was up 42 percent in January to March of 2018 versus the same period in 2017, according… Read more »
U.S. cattle on feed numbers up 5% from a year ago, in line with expectations
USDA’s cattle on feed report, released on Friday, provided little drama as the numbers fell closely in line with expectations. Due to the Memorial Day long weekend in the US, the report was released mid day and the market closed slightly higher after the report was released. Total cattle on feed was estimated at 11.6… Read more »
Soybean shuffles and canola climbs — This week in the grain markets
Grain markets were mostly higher this week in a risk-off sort of mood thanks to a relaxed tone of the trade war narrative we’ve been hearing, as well as a some weather premium creeping into the complex. Nearly two months ago, you could say soybeans (and soybean prices) were on the verge of Armaggedon as… Read more »
China set to buy 40% more U.S. farm products…or will they?
In a relatively short period of time the potential U.S./China trade war has shifted to becoming a “trade truce.” In potentially very good news for U.S. farmers, agricultural commodities could be one of the major beneficiaries. President Donald Trump is demanding an additional $25 billion in U.S. ag exports to China, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue… Read more »
This week, grain markets say “meh” to plant ’18
So, how about that late start to the #plant18 campaign? Recent crop reports suggest it doesn’t really exist. In the U.S., planting caught up to the long-term averages in corn and soybeans, but American spring and durum wheat seeding campaigns are certainly running behind schedule, which has helped prices a bit. According to the latest… Read more »
Brushing off the WASDE report — This week in the grain markets
Grain markets ended mostly in the red this week as the market dealt with some full-tilt planting progress and a few reports. There were some bullish ideas in Thursday’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, but it didn’t seem like the market believed it! (much like other grain reports,… Read more »
Would Canada challenge Ted Cruz’s plan to attach RINs to U.S. ethanol exports?
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is currently the subject of heavy debate in the United States, as President Donald Trump tries to satisfy both the farm and energy industries in his base. On one side, you have Ted Cruz (R-TX) working hard on behalf of the refiners to push for changes to the RFS and… Read more »
WASDE report shows bullish signs but market reacts cautiously…so far
Farmers across North America have been looking for an opportunity to experience higher prices for grain commodities. The USDA’s May WASDE report, including the first ending stock estimates for 2018-19, was released on Thursday. On the surface, it looked like higher prices could be possible with the smaller-than-expect global supply estimates, but the market hardly… Read more »
Trimble shifts services for Agri-Trend network, with focus on digital platform
Two-and-a-half years after acquiring Red Deer-based farm consulting company Agri-Trend, Trimble is changing the way it works with the independent agronomy and grain marketing advisors that make up the Agri-Trend network. The company is focusing on providing its new digital platform to Agri-Trend’s affiliated “coaches,” while no longer offering administrative services, such as pricing and… Read more »