On Friday, the Canadian dollar rose nearly a cent relative to the U.S. dollar. The sudden ‘strength’ came from a couple of sources. First, more confidence that the Bank of Canada will continue the path gradual rate hikes; second, a weaker U.S. Dollar. Recent Canadian economic data warrants the Bank’s outlook for gradual rate increases…. Read more »
Category: Currency Markets
Bank of Canada increases target rate again, but questions remain on the economy and dollar
The Bank of Canada increased the target interest rate today by 0.25%, to 1.5%. This is now the fourth rate hike, amounting to 1%, since the Bank hiked rates for the first time since 2007 a year ago. Over the last year, the Bank of Canada has matched the aggressiveness of the U.S. Federal Reserve,… Read more »
The slow burn of soybeans moves lower as traders search for certainty
At one point in the fall of 2017 soybeans looked like the crop to grow in 2018, as it was going to be the first year ever that soybean acres would be higher than corn and demand was strong. Since the U.S. put its trade agenda with China into action, soybean future prices have really… Read more »
Trade war rhetoric — This week in the grain markets
After just a one-week break, grain markets were again plagued by geopolitical risk with the phrase “trade war” hitting the headlines everywhere. Pressuring Canadian grain prices was the Canadian Dollar hitting a two-month low, closing below US$0.77. But the majority of both the grain and broader markets impacts was, once again, U.S. President Donald Trump… Read more »
Canadians paying for pipeline constraints at the pump, says fuel market analyst
The last time gasoline prices across Canada were where they are today, averaging around $1.33/litre, was in July 2014, when the price of oil was around US$100 a barrel. Oil prices have been trending higher since last summer, but are still $30 below where they were in July 2014. So why are fuel prices so… Read more »
Currency Wars — where is the U.S. dollar really headed?
Last week there were reasons for confusion on what direction the American dollar might take based on White House policy. Most of the confusion last week was driven by comments made by different members of the White House team. “It’s interesting, it’s almost like currency wars at the moment,” says Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives… Read more »
Rear-view rate hikes concerning with economic fogginess ahead
As the Bank of Canada raised its target interest rate a 1/4 point this week, there is disagreement in how the Canadian economy will fare in 2018. While one or two more rate hikes are expected in 2018, there are also concerns on the horizon for the Canadian economy. As we hear from Farm Credit… Read more »
Could blockchain transform agricultural markets?
Before we begin to explain how blockchain may be a game changer for agricultural marketing let’s answer that question that is likely at the top of your mind. “What the the heck is blockchain?” According to the Harvard Business Review, it is “an open, distributed ledger that can record transactions between two parties efficiently and… Read more »
Canada reports a five month low in trade deficit due to rising exports
Both Canada and the United States released their export numbers for the month of October this week and there are some interesting takeaways. Fresh off last week’s third quarter GDP numbers that were dragged down by weak exports, the Statistics Canada trade data pushlished on Tuesday showed rebounding exports. Canada’s trade deficit shrank to a… Read more »
Canada shows surprisingly strong job numbers, weaker GDP growth
On Friday, Statistics Canada released its third-quarter economic report, which included an update on gross domestic product and job growth. With the Canadian government boasting a strong economy and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations in an arguably precarious situation, many experts are watching the domestic economic climate very closely. Some of the highlights… Read more »
What happened to grain markets this quarter?
This week’s grain markets were largely influenced by that was happening in currency markets and government reports. The Canadian Dollar lost about 1.1% this week but has basically ended where it began September, up just 0.15%. On Wednesday, the Loonie saw it’s largest single day loss in eight months after the Bank of Canada’s governor… Read more »
Bank of Canada announces earlier-than-expected interest rate hike
The Bank of Canada announced its second interest rate hike in two months, surprising analysts, and raising the target interest rate by one-quarter point to 1 percent. The last interest rate hike was announced in mid-July, and was the first increase the country had seen in over seven years. Many analysts had expected Bank of Canada… Read more »
RealAg Markets: Second day of red all over the screen
The markets continued their strong bearish tone as grains and oilseeds pushed lower across the board for the second day in a row on Tuesday. On Monday, one excuse was that Friday’s bearish cattle on feed report sparked a push to sell. Expected rains in the U.S. midwest later this week have certainly driven some… Read more »
Cooling off? — This Week in the Grain Market
Grain prices over the first two weeks of July are still swinging a bit wildly as the market is trying to price in the recent heat. Scorching temperatures hit most of North America before the USDA came out with their July WASDE report on July 12th, 2017. The report was met with some bearish skepticism,… Read more »
Halftime analysis in the grain markets
As we turn the calendar into July, we’re taking a look back at the markets over the last six months. We’ll also offer our expectations for the balance of 2017. In our 2017 Grain Markets Forecast (posted in January), we made several timestamped projections. You can review them here at your convenience. The U.S. Federal… Read more »