There’s plenty of uncertainty in 2023 grain markets. The potential for big corn and soybean acres combined with weak economic performance could push prices lower as the year unfolds. But there’s still plenty of profit opportunity, says AgMarket.Net co-founder Jim McCormick. He shared his take on the markets while participating in a market panel at… Read More
Category: Economy & Financial Markets
The expectation of Canada’s gross domestic product number (GDP) wasn’t great — analysts predicted 1.5% GDP growth in Q4; Farm Credit Canada was slightly more optimistic at 1.7%, but both expectations were off. The GDP growth for Q4 ended up being — wait for it — zero. J.P. Gervais, chief economist for Farm Credit Canada… Read More
The problem with war is that there’s no way to know, really, what is going to happen. Jacob Shapiro, geopolitical analyst with Cognitive Investments, calls this the “fog of war,” and it creates uncertainty, volatility, and quick shifts in direction that are difficult to plan for. In the podcast and video below, RealAg Radio host… Read More
Rising costs and inflation are a hot topic right now, but what are the overall trends being seen in consumer choices in the long term? Heather Thomson is the executive director at the Alberta School of Business Centre for Cities and Communities and she spoke at the Ag Awareness Summit at Saskatoon last week. Thomson… Read More
The former governor of the Bank of Canada says he expects inflation will drop quicker than many are predicting and that real interest rates will remain low in the long term. Stephen Poloz shared his economic outlook during a keynote presentation at the CropConnect Conference in Winnipeg on Wednesday. Many of the economic parameters that… Read More
Looking back over the past century, economic recessions have more often than not been preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices, as seen in the first half of 2022. Farmers and grain marketers should be looking to the energy market as a leading indicator for where other commodities are headed, according to a market… Read More
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 0.50 per cent earlier this week, but signalled this may be the beginning of the end for rate hikes. What does this, a tight labour market, and high commodity prices have in store for 2023? J.P. Gervais, chief economist with Farm Credit Canada, spoke this week… Read More
Where Brazil and Mexico have the potential to emerge as hot markets in the longer term, China is a market that one geopolitical analyst says should be sold to when the opportunity arises, but should not be the centre of a trade strategy. Jacob Shapiro with Cognitive Investments strongly cautions Canada, and the U.S. too,… Read More
The current sideways lull in the grain markets has some feeling somewhat uneasy, wondering if the market bumps higher or breaks to the downside. Given the last 18 months, it feels like anything is possible. But why are the markets trading sideways? Plenty of reasons, says Scott Shellady, host of the Cow Guy Close show on… Read More
On October 26th, the Bank of Canada announced a 50 basis point interest rate hike — marking the sixth raise of the calendar year. Brennan Turner, grain market analyst and founder of Combyne Ag, says because we’re in an environment of high inflation, we’re going to see a few more of these increases over the… Read More
There’s no doubt that nitrogen prices have seen a steep price increase again as of late. Most of this momentum is being propelled by the current state of the natural gas market. Sam Taylor, farm input analyst with Rabo AgriFinance, says North American natural gas prices are the highest they’ve been since about 2008. “What… Read More
The Bank of Canada surprised many this week, announcing a 100 basis-point increase in its interest rate. The market expected a 75 basis-point increase, and there was discussion of it being lower, not higher. Increasing interest rates are designed to curb inflation, which is climbing at an incredible rate. We want to know: what impact… Read More
If the best offence is a good defence, the reverse is also true. Momentum is a wave that’s always better to ride when it’s working in your favour. Since the fall of 2020, it has paid major dividends to grow and hold. Crop inventory has been in very tight hands and for very good reason…. Read More
What goes up must come down, but if you’re waiting for deflation to begin any time soon, you may be in for a long wait. Inflation — and the increasing interest rates designed to put a pin in it — is top of mind for every economist right now, and Farm Credit Canada’s chief economist… Read More
Grain markets are losing some steam as summer starts to heat up, but it’s not the dry corn crop that’s driving the sell-off. Joe Vaclavik, founder and president of Standard Grain based in Tennessee, says that yes, weather is front and centre for those with plenty of experience trading agriculture commodities, but there’s far more… Read More