Category: Grain Markets

Christmas in July — This week in the grain market

Grain prices this week had a positive week for the first time in nearly 2 months. Almost feels like Christmas! Usually weather premiums are added to the market in late May through to June. However, this year, that seasonal pattern was idled thanks to an excellent start to the 2018 growing season in North America… Read more »

What will catch the falling knife?

Grain markets lost a fair amount in the second week of July and heightened geopolitical risk (read: trade war) and some decent-looking crops have negatively impacted grain prices. The latter factor was surmised by this week’s July 2018 WASDE report, which provided a reset of the goalposts when it comes to global agricultural supplies and… Read more »

Tariff battle looking like a turning point in world soybean trade

Despite what Chinese government officials say, most market analysts and traders believe China will need to buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, even if it means paying a 25 per cent tariff. “The question is not whether China is eventually going to have to buy U.S. soybeans. I think we all agree they have… Read more »

Poll: How do you price grain when production risk is high?

In a perfect world, you’d price grain several times a year, locking in a percentage of production at a profit, as determined by a complete cost of production figure. But farming isn’t perfect, and only the truly disciplined (and lovers of all things marketing) have annual pricing plans and stick with them. In reality, bills… Read more »

Changes aim to ensure equal access to USDA reports in first few seconds

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has decided to no longer offer reporters a “lockup” period to digest its crop and livestock reports before they’re released to the public, as of August 1, 2018. The change in procedure is meant to address concerns about news agency clients getting a head start on trading based on… Read more »

The slow burn of soybeans moves lower as traders search for certainty

At one point in the fall of 2017 soybeans looked like the crop to grow in 2018, as it was going to be the first year ever that soybean acres would be higher than corn and demand was strong. Since the U.S. put its trade agenda with China into action, soybean future prices have really… Read more »

Acreage, stock reports spark a rally — this week in the grain markets

Grain prices were able to find some buyers on Friday, June 29th, to end the trading month and wrap the quarter. Except for canola and soybeans, the grain markets ended up in the green, led by the wheat complex. While today’s StatsCan and USDA reports were certainly important, they weren’t the only things moving grain… Read more »

StatsCan brings acreage estimates back in line with expectations

After delivering some big surprises in its seeding intentions report back in April, Statistics Canada moved more in line with market expectations in its seeded acreage report published on Friday morning, ahead of the USDA’s latest acreage estimates. The report was based on a survey of approximately 24,500 farms between May 11 and June 12,… Read more »

Soybeans exports a major concern for farmers in U.S.-China trade battle

As the U.S. attempts to fix its trade grievances with China, farmers watching a falling commodity market are having their patience tested. U.S President Donald Trump’s biggest grievance is the trade imbalance that the U.S. has with China.  As you can see below, in 2017 the U.S. exported US$129.9 billion in goods to China while… Read more »

Markets feel threat of additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods

It was a hairy day in the markets on Tuesday, with the trade battle between China and the United States playing a major factor. On Monday night, President Donald Trump informed the U.S. Trade Representative to look at tariffs on an additional $200 billion in imports from China. This is double his original threat of… Read more »

Canola and soybean divergence — one is flat and the other is a falling knife

In a week that featured multiple major commodity market stories, the oilseed complex faced several variables pushing soybeans and canola in opposite directions. In the nearby month (July), canola was up 0.48% while soybeans fell 6.58% to lead all agricultural commodities lower. On Thursday’s edition of RealAg Radio, Shaun Haney and Jon Driedger, FarmLink Marketing… Read more »

Protectionist policies slap grain markets around

Grain markets had a very rough week heading into the middle of June, surrounded by trade uncertainty and positive crop conditions. In fact, forget about crop conditions. Or rainfall. Or heat units. Whether or not the borders are open for business has become the only fundamental factor that really seems to matter to the direction… Read more »

Weather and geopolitical risk —This week in the grain markets

Except for wheat, grain markets this week trended mostly lower. The oilseed complex saw a significant sell-off as the start to the U.S. growing season has been good. Further, there haven’t been any noticeable discussion between the U.S. and China regarding trade. The market is interpreting this as bearish for soybeans. Next week Tuesday, June… Read more »

Trade war rhetoric — This week in the grain markets

After just a one-week break, grain markets were again plagued by geopolitical risk with the phrase “trade war” hitting the headlines everywhere. Pressuring Canadian grain prices was the Canadian Dollar hitting a two-month low, closing below US$0.77. But the majority of both the grain and broader markets impacts was, once again, U.S. President Donald Trump… Read more »

China steps up purchases of peas in India’s absence

With India closing its border to pulse imports late last year, China is seizing the opportunity to buy competitively-priced protein and ramping up its imports of peas from Canada. The value of pea exports from Canada to China was up 42 percent in January to March of 2018 versus the same period in 2017, according… Read more »