While the longer-term outlook for exports to China, based on demographics, appears increasingly bearish, the short-term situation still has Canadian producers in a “sweet spot,” according to a veteran western Canadian grain market analyst. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported the country’s first official population decline in decades on Tuesday. While China’s population still sits… Read More
Category: Grain Markets
Looking back over the past century, economic recessions have more often than not been preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices, as seen in the first half of 2022. Farmers and grain marketers should be looking to the energy market as a leading indicator for where other commodities are headed, according to a market… Read More
Who’s buying, who’s growing, and who’s selling? Chuck Penner, founder of Leftfield Commodity Research, gave a grain market outlook at the Western Canada Crop Production Show at Saskatoon this week. RealAgriculture’s Atley Hamlin caught up with Penner and asked about the pea, lentil, and chickpea market factors at play for the year ahead. Starting with… Read More
When market volatility is not the motivating factor for growers to sell, how do marketers avoid selling complacency setting in? Jonathon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research says that the markets could test new highs in the year ahead, but that small moves over time may be more likely in the year ahead. At the top… Read More
Now is an interesting time to be making decisions on old crop marketing or pulling the trigger on new crop pricing. Some farmers are well set for new crop, but market analyst Jonathon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research says there are three key factors that bear watching early in the new year. Looking very big… Read More
New demand for canola oil is driving a wave of expansion in canola processing capacity, and along with it, there’s going to be a large increase in the supply of the main byproduct — canola meal. The amount of canola processed in Western Canada is expected to grow by around 50 per cent in two… Read More
As much as the 2023 growing season and following marketing year are highly unlikely to be as wild as 2022, there’s still plenty of unknowns and volatility ahead. Neil Townsend, analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, says there were definitely head-scratchers in the 2022 season — like when wheat prices shot up, then dropped, then settled… Read More
Where Brazil and Mexico have the potential to emerge as hot markets in the longer term, China is a market that one geopolitical analyst says should be sold to when the opportunity arises, but should not be the centre of a trade strategy. Jacob Shapiro with Cognitive Investments strongly cautions Canada, and the U.S. too,… Read More
Plans have been unveiled for another major soybean crush plant to be built in North Dakota. Epitome Energy LLC has announced the construction of a US$400 million facility on the north side of Grand Forks, North Dakota — approximately 120 km (75 miles) south of Emerson, Manitoba. It marks the third — and most northerly… Read More
The current sideways lull in the grain markets has some feeling somewhat uneasy, wondering if the market bumps higher or breaks to the downside. Given the last 18 months, it feels like anything is possible. But why are the markets trading sideways? Plenty of reasons, says Scott Shellady, host of the Cow Guy Close show on… Read More
Jammed-full ports in Ontario are impacting basis and possible longer-term options for cash sales in the province, as laker traffic costs increase and tight freight access puts the squeeze on storage space along the St. Lawrence. Jeff Barlow, farmer from near Hamilton, Ont., and director with Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO), doesn’t usually ever have… Read More
As we look back on all that has happened in the agricultural commodity markets over the past three years, there’s plenty to digest. Depending on where you farm, farmers have felt regret, moments of luck, angst, and joy over decent margins during these turbulent times. The question for me is always, now what? Where do… Read More
If you’re tired of hearing words such as “unprecedented” and “new normal,” you’re not alone. That said, over time, what is average or normal or expected does change and evolve. Take commodity prices, for example. Over the very long term, the bottom level resistance for wheat futures at one time was $2/bushel. Eventually, that rose… Read More
Wheat and corn prices for the near and medium term are all about supply. The trouble is, there is plenty of wheat in Russia, but there are few countries who want to be seen buying Russian wheat. What’s more, the uneasy trade corridor accord between Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia is providing very little assurance to… Read More
We’ve discussed before how there will likely be whole research projects centred on the 2022 December corn futures contract. The contract has finally settled in to a range, but that has analysts and farmers alike wondering what it will take to crack this crop to the up — or down — side. To tackle that… Read More